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Annual Activity Report CReDO 2016

 

Summary

This is the 16th annual executive report of the organization. CReDO was in its last years of implementation of the 4th organizational development cycle based on 2015-18 CReDO Strategic Plan. The implementation of some governemental strategic actions were delayed from 2015 to 2016, as November 2014 parliamentary elections have on one side created political previsibility and on the other side political instability given the financial crisis and banking fraud emergence.

 

The president elections in October 2016 represented a point where the elected president Ig.Dodon with the slight margin of just 4%. It will will either continue or confront the curret proeuropean Government. In the former case, CReDO strategy will be European value based constructive engagement, while with the last election come, the strategy might be reconsidered.

 

CReDO is among the most influencial policy analysis and advocacy organization, lately gaining its strong position in influencing wide range of policies from institutional reforms and democratization to human rights policies, especially in holding the 2nd consecutive charmainship  2015-partly 2016 of the Anticorruption Alliance (www.alianta.md). CReDO remained the leading actor in enforcing a most liberal and democratic law on public assemblies in the region. CReDO representatives are relied heavily on international level (OSCE/ODIHR, CoE and EU) for the assembly, policing and fair trial reforms.

 

Key challenges in 2016 were for the macroecomical indicators, bank fraud investigation and prosecution with the asset recovery, the adoption and implementation of the key reforms and the Association Agreement between EU and the Republic of Moldova. The relationships with the Governement remained unchanged, as the mandate of the CNP was not extended for 2016, while for 2017 the re-establishment of CNP is expected. The main challenge constitutes some unfinished reforms in the justice, anti-corruption, building the public integrity system as preventive anticorruption measures and assuring the independence/efficiency of public institutions. Another challenge is the building of the influence of the civil society sector on the policy-process in the Parliament and the increase of the decisional transparency.

 

In February 2016, the Government and the European Commission have agreed on the priority reforms in the implementation of the Association Agreement as there have been a number of delays in the course of 2015. The priority reforms have been coined Road Map. Based on the successful realization of the Road Map and the signing of the staff level agreement with the IMF, The European Commission agreed to resume the direct budget support totaling around 160 mln euro, the suspension decision taken in June 2015.

The Government and the European Commission has agreed that the new Action Plan on the implementation of the Association Agreement for the next 2 years and possible the new Road Map II focusing on the short term priorities (up to 6 months) , the 1st one was approved by the Government on the 28th December.

 

CReDO stay focused on the end-policy-process influence with specific policy opinions, legal amendments and solutions as proven to be the effective policy influence process and provide direct policy advice in a format of several pages that are both legally sound and economically, socially and politically implementable.

 

Political developments are the most critical aspect. [1]

Conclusions for 2018/19

Under current assumptions, the most likely way is Realistic Path (internal development – “REAL” or some sort of “REAL +”). Realistic path under either peaceful or pragmatic global scenarios yield overall probability of 60-85%.[2] This still could, in some circumstances, develop into Ideal Path of political development with less than 20% probability.

The gradual-reform way forward (“IDEAL – “ or “REAL”), the country needs at least continuation of the existing western support, e.g. the 4-factour model of E(I)rA. The political configuration that supports this very model is similar to the one above.

The current electoral system (party list), the change for forming a political majority is 60-40% in favor of the left political forces (Option 2A-PSRM+PCRM) or left-center (Option. 2A-PSRM+PCRM+PDM).

Chances for this options grow if the global scenario moves from peaceful scenario to pragmatic and especially to confrontational scenario. This is given the increasing Russian influences in Moldova and agreement with EU and US on spheres of influences and even grater vote of the labor migrants from Russia and from TN.

Option 2A will be dominated by PSRM and Russians in proportion of 75 – 25% and therefore promotion of the European option will be difficult.

The probability for Option 1A is substantially less, perhaps 25-75% (with the current electoral system), given: a) electoral pattern (above) and b) confrontational personal relations between PAS-PDM and PL (or successor party).

Chances for Option 1B are higher since the perception of the external threat will push PAS+PD+PL to overcome internal confrontations at the expense of the national security considerations. However, in case of 1B none of the substantial reforms could be carried out given the increased influence of Russia and the spheres of influence and turfing role of President Dodon.

 

 



[1] CReDO. Analysis of Political Developments in Moldova: 2017-19

 

[2] The more rigorous calculation could come from: Combined probability of Event 1 (global scenario) X Event 2 (internal path).

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